How Core Envision Estimates Its $66B TAM, $36B SAM, $4.7B SOM, and $2.1B Beachhead Market
Core Envision’s current market estimate covers the sale of complete framing-material packages for new residential construction in the United States and Canada. These packages include dimensional lumber, engineered wood, structural sheathing, and framing hardware.
The estimate does not currently include drywall, roofing, siding, flooring, or other materials that Core Envision could potentially add in the future.
1. North American Housing Volume
Approximately 1.36 million homes were started in the United States in 2025, including approximately 943,000 single-family homes. NAHB / Census housing-start analysis
Canada recorded 259,028 housing starts in 2025. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
Together, the United States and Canada generated approximately 1.62 million new residential units during 2025.
2. Estimated Unit Mix
Custom and Production Single-Family Homes
NAHB’s analysis of Census data estimates that custom homes represent approximately 19% of single-family starts. Applying that share to the combined U.S. and Canadian single-family market produces the following working estimate. National Association of Home Builders
| Segment | Estimated Annual Units |
|---|---|
| Custom single-family | 189,000 |
| Production / tract single-family | 806,000 |
The U.S. custom-home share is applied to the combined North American single-family market as a modeling assumption. The precise custom-versus-production mix in Canada may differ.
Wood-Framed Multifamily
The combined U.S. and Canadian multifamily market represents approximately 622,000 annual units. Core Envision applies an 84% addressable wood-framed share, producing approximately 522,000 addressable wood-framed multifamily units.
As supporting evidence, the U.S. Census Bureau reports that 84% of multifamily buildings completed for rent in 2025 used wood framing. The Census statistic measures U.S. rental buildings rather than all North American multifamily units, so Core Envision uses it as a reasonable proxy for the addressable wood-framed share of the broader market. U.S. Census Bureau
3. Revenue per Project or Unit
Under Core Envision’s business model, framing materials are delivered directly to the jobsite. Core Envision’s revenue opportunity is calculated as:
| Segment | Average Market-Price Package | Core Envision Revenue at +3.5% |
|---|---|---|
| Custom single-family | $100,000 | $103,500 |
| Production / tract | $40,000 | $41,400 |
| Wood-framed multifamily | $25,000 / unit | $25,875 / unit |
Package values are Core Envision management estimates informed by project experience, material takeoffs, target geographies, and intended customer mix. They are not government-published national averages.
As a public benchmark, NAHB’s Construction Cost Survey reported framing as approximately 16.6% of the cost of constructing an average new single-family home. That figure includes labor and other framing-stage costs and therefore is not directly equivalent to Core Envision’s framing-material package. NAHB Construction Cost Survey
4. Total Addressable Market (TAM): Approximately $66B
TAM represents Core Envision’s potential annual revenue if it supplied all framing packages within the defined current North American product scope.
| Segment | Annual Units | Revenue / Unit | Estimated TAM |
|---|---|---|---|
| Custom single-family | 189,000 | $103,500 | $19.6B |
| Production / tract | 806,000 | $41,400 | $33.4B |
| Wood-framed multifamily | 522,000 | $25,875 | $13.5B |
| TOTAL | $66.4B |
The calculated annual opportunity of approximately $66.4 billion is rounded to a $66 billion TAM for presentation.
5. Serviceable Available Market (SAM): Approximately $36B
Core Envision’s initial commercial focus is concentrated on portions of the market where project size, construction economics, and the value of reducing labor and material inefficiencies are strongest:
- Custom single-family homes
- Wood-framed multifamily developments
- A limited portion of economically attractive production housing
- Projects and regions with sufficient scale, material value, and customer economics
| Segment Included in SAM | Addressable Share | Estimated Value |
|---|---|---|
| Custom single-family | 100% | $19.6B |
| Wood-framed multifamily | 100% | $13.5B |
| Production / tract | 10% | $3.3B |
| TOTAL SAM | $36.4B |
The result is approximately a $36 billion SAM.
Production housing is deliberately limited to 10% of its TAM contribution. Core Envision can technically serve a substantially larger share of this segment, but production housing generally generates lower revenue per home, may require longer enterprise sales cycles, and commonly involves established material-purchasing and supplier relationships. Core Envision therefore expects custom homes and wood-framed multifamily to represent its primary commercial opportunity.
6. Long-Term Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM): Approximately $4.7B
Core Envision models its long-term SOM as 13% of the approximately $36.4 billion SAM:
Rounded for presentation, Core Envision estimates a $4.7 billion long-term SOM.
This is a long-term obtainable-market scenario rather than a near-term revenue forecast. It assumes broad geographic expansion, multiple material distribution relationships, and significant adoption across custom, multifamily, and selected production-home markets.
7. Beachhead Market: Approximately $2.1B
The beachhead market represents the first narrowly defined customer segment Core Envision intends to pursue aggressively. It focuses exclusively on new custom single-family construction where project size, labor costs, and builder characteristics make adoption particularly attractive.
The beachhead is intentionally narrower than Core Envision’s SOM and is calculated independently using a bottom-up filtering process.
Step 1 — New Contractor-Built Custom Homes
The U.S. Census Bureau reports approximately 130,000 contractor-built single-family homes completed in 2025. Contractor-built homes are homes constructed for owner occupancy on the owner’s land under contract with a builder. U.S. Census Bureau — Contractor-Built Home Size Data
Because this dataset covers complete new single-family homes, the beachhead does not include remodeling, additions, detached garages, sheds, or other partial residential construction projects.
Step 2 — Medium- and High-Cost Construction Markets
Core Envision initially targets markets where higher construction and labor costs make reductions in onsite labor and material inefficiency substantially more valuable.
As a conservative geographic proxy, the beachhead calculation includes the Northeast, Midwest, and West and excludes the entire South. The Census 2025 contractor-built dataset reports approximately:
- Northeast: 16,000 homes
- Midwest: 24,000 homes
- West: 22,000 homes
Excluding the entire South is intentionally conservative. Several Southern metropolitan markets have construction economics that may ultimately fit Core Envision’s target profile.
Step 3 — Complete New Homes of Approximately 1,400 Sq. Ft. or Larger
Very small projects are less attractive because Core Envision’s economic benefit and revenue opportunity increase with project size. The initial beachhead therefore excludes homes below approximately 1,400 square feet.
The Census Bureau publishes contractor-built home sizes using an “Under 1,400 sq. ft.” category, allowing this filter to be applied directly without estimating a split within a published size range. The 2025 share of homes under 1,400 square feet was approximately:
- Northeast: 13% — therefore 87% qualify
- Midwest: 15% — therefore 85% qualify
- West: 29% — therefore 71% qualify
Applying these shares to the regional project counts produces:
Census categories begin at 1,400 square feet, so the model uses approximately 1,400 sq. ft. or larger as the closest published equivalent to Core Envision’s project-size threshold. U.S. Census Bureau square-footage data
Step 4 — Technology-Adoption and Builder-Efficiency Filter
Core Envision does not assume broad immediate adoption across all otherwise eligible builders. Starting from zero assumed adoption, the beachhead identifies a narrower pool of builders most likely to become first-wave customers.
Three conservative filters are applied to the otherwise qualifying market:
- 26% near-retirement proxy: NAHB reports that 26% of its builder members are age 65 or older. For initial market sizing, Core Envision excludes this cohort as a conservative proxy for builders who may be less likely to adopt a substantial new construction workflow late in their careers.
- 30% change-adoption reserve: an additional 30% of the market is excluded to account for builders who are expected to be slower to adopt a new technology or workflow. Construction has historically relied heavily on established field practices, and Core Envision assumes that many otherwise suitable builders will require additional proof, references, and industry adoption before becoming customers.
- 3% highly optimized operators: Core Envision excludes an additional 3% to represent exceptionally efficient framing operations whose current processes are already optimized enough that Core Envision would provide less incremental economic benefit.
The age factor is used solely as a conservative market-modeling proxy and is not an actual customer qualification or exclusion criterion. NAHB reports that in 2024, 26% of builder members were age 65 or older. NAHB Builder Member Census
The 30% change-adoption factor and 3% highly optimized-builder factor are deliberately conservative Core Envision assumptions rather than published industry statistics.
As Core Envision builds references, demonstrated savings, and market credibility, portions of the 30% slower-adoption group may become addressable in later stages. They are intentionally excluded from the initial beachhead.
Beachhead Revenue Opportunity
At the modeled average Core Envision revenue of $103,500 per custom home:
Core Envision therefore estimates an initial beachhead market of approximately $2.1 billion in annual revenue opportunity.
At an illustrative gross margin of approximately 13%, full penetration of this market would represent approximately $275 million in annual gross profit opportunity. This is a market-size illustration, not a revenue or profitability forecast.
The beachhead deliberately excludes Canada, the entire Southern United States, owner-built homes, homes below approximately 1,400 square feet, remodeling and additions, slower-adopting builder profiles, and a small share of highly optimized operators. Some excluded projects may ultimately be attractive to Core Envision; the purpose of the beachhead is to define a focused first market rather than the full addressable custom-home opportunity.
Summary
| Market Level | Estimated Annual Opportunity |
|---|---|
| TAM — Current North American framing-package scope | $66B |
| SAM — Priority projects, regions, and customer segments | $36B |
| Long-Term SOM — 13% of SAM | $4.7B |
| Beachhead Market — Initial U.S. custom-home target | $2.1B |
Important Modeling Notes
Market sizes are estimates rather than forecasts. Public housing-start, framing, home-size, builder-demographic, and regional data are combined with Core Envision assumptions regarding framing-package values, addressability, technology adoption, customer economics, and long-term market penetration.
Key Core Envision assumptions include average framing-package values, the application of the Census 84% wood-framing benchmark to North American multifamily addressability, the 10% production-home share included in SAM, the 13% long-term SOM penetration, the 30% slower-adoption exclusion, and the 3% highly optimized-builder exclusion.